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  1. On Wednesday the 8th of August, trading on the euro closed slightly up. High volatility on the market was observed during the European session. The euro rose from 1.1573 to 1.1628 amid a lack of important events and news concerning Sino-US trade relations. The Chinese authorities announced the introduction of import duties on goods from the United States in the amount of 16bn USD (25%) as a response to the US' tariffs set to take effect on the 23rd of August. By the close of trading, the euro recovered to 1.1620. Day's news (GMT+3): 11:00 Eurozone: ECB economic bulletin. 15:15 Canada: housing starts s.a (YoY) (Jul). 15:30 Canada: new housing price index (MoM) (Jun). 15:30 USA: PPI (MoM) (Jul), initial jobless claims (Jul 30). Current situation: I expected to reach 1.1665 on Thursday during the European session. On Wednesday, the geopolitical factor reduced the speed at which the euro could strengthen against the dollar. Despite the breakthrough of the trend line (L1,1530 - L1552), bulls were able to regroup around the Lb balance line and the 45thdegree, winning back most of the losses by the end of the trading day. That's just how it goes. News makes the market move. On Wednesday, the euro saw a false breakout of the trend line. The price bounced from the 45th degree. In Asia, the euro is rising against USD, GBP, and NZD. The EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, and EURJPY crosses are all trading slightly down. If the pair maintains its positive trend during the European session, then according to the W-shaped model (shown on the chart) I expect growth to the 67th degree (1.1654). Additionally, at this level, the trend line intersects with the upper line of the ascending channel. Bulls have enough momentum to reach 1.1690. Whether or not we will move there will depend on where the market goes when the London session opens. Now let's pause for a second and turn our attention to US Treasury bonds. Should they drop amid the escalating conflict between the US and China, then the euro will sink as a result of risk aversion. If bond yields go unaffected by geopolitical events, then the decline will put pressure on the dollar and act as a support for the single currency. In other news, I suppose it is worth paying attention to the ECB's economic bulletin. You can learn more in https://alpari.com/en/beginner/articles/technical_analysis/
  2. Josesv

    Sell GBP/USD in a good moment

    The U.S. dollar pushed higher against a basket of the other major currencies on Monday, buoyed by expectations for higher interest rates, while fresh Brexit woes pushed sterling to its lowest level since September. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.17% to 95.19 by 10:58 AM ET (14:58 GMT), re-approaching the one-year peak of 95.44 hit on July 19. Demand for the dollar was underpinned after the latest U.S. jobs report underlined expectations for the Federal Reserve to stick to a gradual pace of rate hikes this year. U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July, the Labor Department reported Friday, but labor market conditions continued to tighten, cementing expectations for anticipated rate increases in September and December. The U.S. central bank kept interest rates on hold last week, but said the U.S. economy was strong, indicating that it is on track to deliver two further rate hikes this year. The pound slumped to 11-month lows against the broadly stronger dollar amid mounting worries over Brexit after Britain’s international trade secretary warned that a no-deal Brexit was now more likely than not. GBP/USD hit a low of 1.2920, its weakest since September 4 and was last at 1.2941, off 0.48% for the day. Meanwhile, an opinion poll out Monday showed that public support for British Prime Minister Theresa May’s handling of the Brexit negotiations has hit a record low. Just 24% of the public approve of how negotiations are going, down from 40% in April. The euro touched a four-and-a-half week low against the dollar, with EUR/USD falling as low as 1.1530 before easing back to 1.1558. The single currency has been pressured lower by the diverging monetary policy outlook between the Fed and the European Central Bank, which has pledged to keep interest rates on hold through the summer of 2019. The single currency was also hit after data showing that German factory orders slumped by 4% in June, the biggest fall in almost 18 months amid weaker overseas demand. The unexpectedly weak data added to fears over the economic impact of rising trade tensions. The dollar pushed higher against the yen, with USD/JPY adding on 0.14% to trade at 111.43. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira fell to fresh record lows against the U.S. currency as frictions between the U.S. and Ankara mounted. The lira has already lost around 36% this year amid selling sparked concerns over President Tayyip Erdogan's push for greater control over monetary policy. See more in https://alpari.com/en/beginner/articles/fundamental_analysis/