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Marrcos1337

Losing X times in a row? Check Probalities

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Hello Stakers ☺️

There are some probalities for losing x times in a row was calculated byΒ me πŸ˜„Β You can use them to create Your own strategies or just to play πŸ˜„

  1. 80% - 2 Times in a row 4%, 3 times in a row - 0.8%, 4 times in a row - 0.16% πŸ˜„
  2. 50% - 3 Times in a row 12.5%, 4 times - 6.25%, 5 times 3.125% and etc... So can you see, probality, that you'll lose a lot of on 50% is not very small
  3. 30% - 2 Times in a row - 49%, 3 times in a row - 34.3%, 4 times in a row - 24%.

I hope This information can help you)

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On 12/17/2018 at 11:07 AM, zeriko said:

Its all nice and stuff but unfortunately the next bet is not reliant on the previous one so in theory u could lose 1la million bets in a row!

exactly, well said...β€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Š
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β€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šο»Ώβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šο»Ώβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šο»Ώβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šβ€Šο»Ώ
The thought of the next roll being or having had affect from the previous bet or bets is called or referred to as The Gambler's FallacyΒ 
I think there my be a post here about it or a thread.. its very interesting

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Posted (edited)
On 12/17/2018 at 7:57 PM, Marrcos1337 said:
  1. 80% - 2 Times in a row 4%, 3 times in a row - 0.8%, 4 times in a row - 0.16% πŸ˜„
  2. 50% - 3 Times in a row 12.5%, 4 times - 6.25%, 5 times 3.125% and etc... So can you see, probality, that you'll lose a lot of on 50% is not very small
  3. 30% - 2 Times in a row - 49%, 3 times in a row - 34.3%, 4 times in a row - 24%.

Hi Marrcos1337, thank you for sharing this information. Yes, your numbers are correct, but they only apply to the odds of getting it on the first attempt. I mean, if you calculate the odds of losing an 80% bet 2 times in a row as 4%, then the odds of hitting two losses in a row, for the first two bets, is 4%.

If you let auto-bet run all day long, then the odds of seeing two losses in a row on an 80% bet rises to more than 4%. I'm not sure how to calculate it, I wish I did, but I think it is definitely more than 4%. It's something like saying, if I want to hit the Plinko 1000x multiplier, and I only play once, my odds are 2/65536 or 1 in 32768. But if I leave auto-bet for 6 hours, what are my odds then? It's the same principle.

In other words, if you are relying on NOT hitting this "killing" streak of losses (a la martingale or similar system), the longer you leave it, the more your odds of seeing the killing blow. I don't know if the odds tapers out after a while, I'm intrigued as to whether it does.

The !odds command also only tells you the odds for the first attempt.

!odds 5 50 = 1 in 32 bets or 3.125%. This means if I only make 5 bets, my odds of losing all 5 in a row with 50% win chance is 1 in 32. But if I run 100 bets, what are the odds of hitting the 5 losses in a row? Is it still 3.125%? I think it is definitely higher than that. Just something to keep in mind when you leave auto-player for a long time..πŸ‘

Edited by Pirnitho

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10 hours ago, Pirnitho said:

In other words, if you are relying on NOT hitting this "killing" streak of losses (a la martingale or similar system), the longer you leave it, the more your odds of seeing the killing blow. I don't know if the odds tapers out after a while, I'm intrigued as to whether it does.

ah your wording here is interesting, at first i was gonna comment saying... "nono u have it all wrong" but i think i see what your saying.

you meant, the longer you play the more chances increase of eventually getting so many reds in a row that you bust right?
thats weird to think about that sentence i just wrote:^

hmm it is a true statement technically right?

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14 hours ago, Shaniqua said:

you meant, the longer you play the more chances increase of eventually getting so many reds in a row that you bust right?
thats weird to think about that sentence i just wrote:^

hmm it is a true statement technically right?

Yes, I know it's weird and it's hard to exactly imagine, but it's like saying, if I leave my martingale running for 5 minutes, compared to leaving it for 5 hours, which one has the better chance to bust? And for sure the 5 hours one.. I wish I knew how to calculate the exact probability, though... maybe I should look into that.

Another way to imagine it, is the chance of hitting the 'killing blow' as a single bet. Let's say you have 1 in 1000 bets chance to hit the killing blow.

If you make "one bet", so "one chance to hit the killing blow", the odds are 1 in 1000.

If you make "five thousand bets", there's a much higher chance you'll see the killing blow...

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