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KiXxnTRiXx

Probability behind Plinko

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Ive always wondered what the probability are for each level of pins/difficulty for Plinko and if its solely individual or global. Does anyone know or have an idea how or whete to getthis information?

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Simply go down for lower pins. I believe it's the same probability to hit the highest multiplier in High-16 pin as it is to hit the highest multiplier in Low-16 pin, it's just the multipliers in low/medium risk are less extreme (huge loss or huge profit).

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44 minutes ago, irawk0 said:

Simply go down for lower pins. I believe it's the same probability to hit the highest multiplier in High-16 pin as it is to hit the highest multiplier in Low-16 pin, it's just the multipliers in low/medium risk are less extreme (huge loss or huge profit).

Thats only for 16 pins tho xD or does it include all pins/difficulty? I play at all pins, thats why im curious. ai dont just hunt 16 high.. xD

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On 1/12/2019 at 7:19 PM, KiXxnTRiXx said:

Thats only for 16 pins tho xD or does it include all pins/difficulty? I play at all pins, thats why im curious. ai dont just hunt 16 high.. xD

Well I meant calculate down. Edit: http://mathforum.org/dr.cgi/pascal.html (I was wrong on the math sorry, Thanks to Pirnitho for correction for everything below + link)

16 pins = 17 different multiplier slots and chances for each are 1  •  16  •  120  •  560  •  1820  •  4368  •  8008  •  11440  •  12870  •  11440  •  8008  •  4368  •  1820  •  560  •  120  •  16  •  1

15 pins = 16 different multiplier slots and chances for each are 1 15 105 455 1365 3003 5005 6435 6435 5005 3003 1365 455 105 15 1

14 pins = 15 different multiplier slots and chances for each are 1 14 91 364 1001 2002 3003 3432 3003 2002 1001 364 91 14 1

The highest multiplier for High-14 pins is 420x, and the chances for hitting it is 2/(all the numbers added up) = 1/8,192 rolls,

Edited by irawk0

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19 minutes ago, irawk0 said:

Well I meant calculate down.

16 pins = 17 different multiplier slots and chances for each are 1  •  16  •  120  •  560  •  1820  •  4368  •  8008  •  11440  •  12870  •  11440  •  8008  •  4368  •  1820  •  560  •  120  •  16  •  1

15 pins = 16 different multiplier slots and chances for each are 1  •  16  •  120  •  560  •  1820  •  4368  •  8008  •  11440  •  11440  •  8008  •  4368  •  1820  •  560  •  120  •  16  •  1

14 pins = 15 different multiplier slots and chances for each are 1  •  16  •  120  •  560  •  1820  •  4368  •  8008  •  11440  •  8008  •  4368  •  1820  •  560  •  120  •  16  •  1

The highest multiplier for High-14 pins is 420x, and the chances for hitting it is 2/(all the numbers added up) = 1/20,613 or once every 20.6k rolls

Hahaha, thanks bud. Now to try and make sense of this..l hmmm.. lol.l cheers!

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Thank you for the effort @irawk0, but your numbers are not correct for 14 and 15 pins (16 is right). You can see the numbers on this Pascal's Triangle page: http://mathforum.org/dr.cgi/pascal.html

This means, for 8 pins, there are 9 spots the ball can land. There's a 50% chance on each row for the ball to go left or right. Mathematically, the odds of landing on the highest payout spot with 8 pins (for high risk or low risk, doesn't matter like irawk0 said) is (1+1)/256 = 2/256 or 1 in 128 bets.

For 9 pins, the odds of the highest payout spot is 2/512 = 1 in 256 bets.

For 10 pins, the odds of the highest payout spot is 2/1024 = 1 in 512 bets. And you can see the pattern here. I hope this helps.

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On 1/12/2019 at 10:52 PM, Pirnitho said:

Thank you for the effort @irawk0, but your numbers are not correct for 14 and 15 pins (16 is right). You can see the numbers on this Pascal's Triangle page: http://mathforum.org/dr.cgi/pascal.html

This means, for 8 pins, there are 9 spots the ball can land. There's a 50% chance on each row for the ball to go left or right. Mathematically, the odds of landing on the highest payout spot with 8 pins (for high risk or low risk, doesn't matter like irawk0 said) is (1+1)/256 = 2/256 or 1 in 128 bets.

For 9 pins, the odds of the highest payout spot is 2/512 = 1 in 256 bets.

For 10 pins, the odds of the highest payout spot is 2/1024 = 1 in 512 bets. And you can see the pattern here. I hope this helps.

Ohh it's actually one row higher, not one row less slant-wise lol. I'm terrible at math so tyvm for correction :) 

I've edited my previous post, hopefully the new math is right :o

Edited by irawk0

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14 minutes ago, meggiemegs said:

Thanks for the info guys this is actually pretty useful because I play 9 and 10 pins often, helps give insight as to how I should play for the odds. :)

Yes definitely thank you for everyones input and informations. 

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