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Comparison of Old and New Plinko!

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I have done a lot of work on this, it took a bit longer than I thought, and there's some interesting results!

So, today we have new plinko with new multipliers/payouts. Here's a quick comparison of old and new plinko payouts:

image.thumb.png.3adfd9ae3a2ec348ac4b3c6bbd3a1418.png

Now what changed of importance? If you're inclined like me and you want to know the house edge, well, wait no more!

image.thumb.png.d3f9dee2365276b31d36c1cb7bb6efcb.png

image.thumb.png.30df680f525146e67ba703948179e689.png

So as you can see, the house edge didn't change on average from old to new plinko, well that's a relief 😂😁

The last column shows your average profit in the event that you got "some" profit.
What's interesting to me here, is that there's a few cases where the high-risk variant gives a lower average profit (11 and 13 pins).
Also, there appears to be no major difference between 8 med and 8 high in the new version.

There's plenty of data there to peruse, and here's a quick summary:

image.png.74ee546de1abad59225e852949b166b3.png

From a quick look, it seems clear that the variance is mostly higher in the new version (as you would expect from looking at the higher multipliers!),
but this is not always the case!

One final thing, what are the odds in the new version? Same as the old version. Here's a simple odds table:

image.thumb.png.eaee744ee01f5b35a1706e491515f484.png

So for the new 5,000x multiplier, this would be the first payout spot from the left on 16 pins.
So the odds from the above table would be: 1 in 32768 bets. Same as the old 1000x, this has not changed.

@Owly gave me the great idea to investigate what's the average balance you need to hit the highest payout for each setting, comparing old and new Plinko.

So, here is my results after running a simulation of 10,000 trials (only) on each setting. They aren't as accurate as could be, but I don't have infinite patience.

image.thumb.png.699765edbee977f4c9a1e988a0a1ba75.png

image.thumb.png.0a89cd9678485ef08b513eca1f93636a.png

So the way these tables work is, your bet amount is called "1.00". This can be whatever actual bet. The first 3 columns should match for each setting (so for Plinko 16, the number of bets needed on average should be exactly 32768 for each setting. The fact that it isn't shows the inaccuracy of only 10,000 trials).

So as @Owly mentioned, you do in fact need a much higher balance on average to play the new Plinko! Especially if you're going for the 5000x!

I hope some of you find this information useful, if you have anything to add or found any errors please let me know! 😁👍

Edited by Pirnitho | added new table

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Hahahaha.. i am still loving the fact there is a 5000x payout now on plinko and that lower pins has a nice fatter payout as well.. My only concern is the new 0.0x replacing the 0,2x.. What i have noticed so far, is you bust way easier and way quicker with the 0.0x..especially when you get a boat load worth of plinko pucks hittng it in a row.. my hope and suggestion is perhaps the chances % needs to get reviewed.. a lot of playes have been voicing out the same issue in chat about having way too many 0.0x pucks which bust many players quickly.. unless you are lucky or have a big bank roll, you'll get frustrated by it for a long time until you hit the big multiliers. xD

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Thank you for this information. Must have taken a long time to bring all this information together. Nice work ;) . The odds of hitting a huge multiplier has drastically gone down in my opinion. 

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So they have essentially increased the house edge slightly!? Thanks so much for the insight on comparing the old plinko with the new plinko, that is really much appreciated, looks like I will be going by this list if I want to gamble in future to make sure I'm gambling on the lowest edge so that I can profit a bit better. So far too many losses so I'm still on the road to recovery, it won't be long before I can really give the new plinko a run for it's money, I'd love to hit 5,000x which could easily change someones life if it is a decent bet size.

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idkn if im unlucky or what i just cant hit ower 30x like 4000 rolls like for real before it took me under 1000 roll and i would hit 80 twice if not more.

Any ways i just wrlly hate plinko now but ty for showing use this ❤️ .

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9 hours ago, Owly said:

I think you're missing important part, when you need balance twice more than would have needed for old pins with the same base bet.

Wonderful suggestion @Owly!!! I added this to the main post, and you are absolutely right about this. Great idea!

7 hours ago, KiXxnTRiXx said:

What i have noticed so far, is you bust way easier and way quicker with the 0.0x..

Indeed, I added a new table on the average balance you need to hit the highest payout, go check it out! 😁

44 minutes ago, Kate said:

Thank you for this information. Must have taken a long time to bring all this information together. Nice work ;) . The odds of hitting a huge multiplier has drastically gone down in my opinion. 

Thank you Kate :). It did indeed. Depends on what you mean, the odds of hitting the new 536x is exactly the same as the odds of the old 88x. But the balance you need to hit it on average, is much higher now.

28 minutes ago, DarkBlood069 said:

So they have essentially increased the house edge slightly!? Thanks so much for the insight on comparing the old plinko with the new plinko, that is really much appreciated, looks like I will be going by this list if I want to gamble in future to make sure I'm gambling on the lowest edge so that I can profit a bit better.

Yes, but this is a tiny change in my opinion, the most important thing is the actual number of pins and the risk setting. You need more balance now than before to hit the highest multiplier. You're welcome!

2 minutes ago, yololife222 said:

idkn if im unlucky or what i just cant hit ower 30x like 4000 rolls like for real before it took me under 1000 roll and i would hit 80 twice if not more.

Any ways i just wrlly hate plinko now but ty for showing use this ❤️ .

Welcome, do you mean the old 88?

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2 hours ago, Pirnitho said:

Yes, but this is a tiny change in my opinion, the most important thing is the actual number of pins and the risk setting. You need more balance now than before to hit the highest multiplier. You're welcome!

I guess I'm not too worried about the really small changes, I'm more concerned that if I put large funds into plinko that it will just give me a straight run of 0.00x's and no profit whatsoever, since Plinko revolves around pure luck and nothing but luck. The odds were announced by one of the team that the odds of hitting 1000x & 5000x are completely the same as they were before, I guess this is why the 0.00x's are around because now there is reason to fight for higher multipliers. However I only see people winning big on very small bets. Looking forward to seeing people hit big with bigger funds. I just want to see it happen soon. This tally is really something else, I know I've stated it's insight but it really does help!

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13 hours ago, Pirnitho said:

I have done a lot of work on this, it took a bit longer than I thought, and there's some interesting results!

So, today we have new plinko with new multipliers/payouts. Here's a quick comparison of old and new plinko payouts:

image.thumb.png.3adfd9ae3a2ec348ac4b3c6bbd3a1418.png

Now what changed of importance? If you're inclined like me and you want to know the house edge, well, wait no more!

image.thumb.png.d3f9dee2365276b31d36c1cb7bb6efcb.png

image.thumb.png.30df680f525146e67ba703948179e689.png

So as you can see, the house edge didn't change on average from old to new plinko, well that's a relief 😂😁

The last column shows your average profit in the event that you got "some" profit.
What's interesting to me here, is that there's a few cases where the high-risk variant gives a lower average profit (11 and 13 pins).
Also, there appears to be no major difference between 8 med and 8 high in the new version.

There's plenty of data there to peruse, and here's a quick summary:

image.png.74ee546de1abad59225e852949b166b3.png

From a quick look, it seems clear that the variance is mostly higher in the new version (as you would expect from looking at the higher multipliers!),
but this is not always the case!

One final thing, what are the odds in the new version? Same as the old version. Here's a simple odds table:

image.thumb.png.eaee744ee01f5b35a1706e491515f484.png

So for the new 5,000x multiplier, this would be the first payout spot from the left on 16 pins.
So the odds from the above table would be: 1 in 32768 bets. Same as the old 1000x, this has not changed.

@Owly gave me the great idea to investigate what's the average balance you need to hit the highest payout for each setting, comparing old and new Plinko.

So, here is my results after running a simulation of 10,000 trials (only) on each setting. They aren't as accurate as could be, but I don't have infinite patience.

image.thumb.png.699765edbee977f4c9a1e988a0a1ba75.png

image.thumb.png.0a89cd9678485ef08b513eca1f93636a.png

So the way these tables work is, your bet amount is called "1.00". This can be whatever actual bet. The first 3 columns should match for each setting (so for Plinko 16, the number of bets needed on average should be exactly 32768 for each setting. The fact that it isn't shows the inaccuracy of only 10,000 trials).

So as @Owly mentioned, you do in fact need a much higher balance on average to play the new Plinko! Especially if you're going for the 5000x!

I hope some of you find this information useful, if you have anything to add or found any errors please let me know! 😁👍

This is really helpful and a good knowledge to keep,, thx for sharing

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14 hours ago, DarkBlood069 said:

I guess I'm not too worried about the really small changes, I'm more concerned that if I put large funds into plinko that it will just give me a straight run of 0.00x's and no profit whatsoever, since Plinko revolves around pure luck and nothing but luck. The odds were announced by one of the team that the odds of hitting 1000x & 5000x are completely the same as they were before, I guess this is why the 0.00x's are around because now there is reason to fight for higher multipliers. However I only see people winning big on very small bets. Looking forward to seeing people hit big with bigger funds. I just want to see it happen soon. This tally is really something else, I know I've stated it's insight but it really does help!

Yep, odds of hitting 1000x and 5000x is same.  As I noticed on average balance, we need 4-5x extra balance to cover when facing long reds since there is 0 return when red.

And thanks @Pirnitho, this is really useful to calculate my management base bet.

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