Theoretical analysis: comparison between old and new Plinko

[irawk0 233]

Assumption: 65536 x 100 or 6,553,600 rolls. (for easier calculation) Base bet each time: 10 satoshi Starting bankroll: 65,536,000 satoshi

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Old Plinko payout: 1000x 130x 26x 9x 4x 2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 2x 4x 9x 26x 130x 1000x

Result: 200 (1000x), 3,200 (130x), 24,000 (26x), 112,000 (9x), 364,000 (4x), 873,600 (2x), 5,176,600 (0.2x) = total of 6,553,600 rolls

End balance: +2,000,000 +4,160,000 +6,240,000 +10,080,000 +14,560,000 +17,472,000 +10,353,200

Final result = 64,865,200 satoshi, overall losing 670,800 satoshi or 1.0235% house edge

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New Plinko payout: 5000x 139x 30x 10x 4x 2x 0x 0x 0x 0x 0x 2x 4x 10x 30x 139x 5000x

Result: 200 (5000x), 3,200 (139x), 24,000 (30x), 112,000 (10x), 364,000 (4x), 873,600 (2x), 5,176,600 (0x) = total of 6,553,600 rolls

End balance: +10,000,000 +4,448,000 +7,200,000 +11,200,000 +14,560,000 +17,472,000 +0

Final result = 64,880,000 satoshi, overall losing 656,000 satoshi or almost exactly 1% house edge

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TLDR: Assuming everything is statistically accurate it's actually very very slightly more profitable playing Plinko now. 

If I messed up on any math please let me know thank you  

Source: 

On 10/11/2017 at 8:15 AM, Dan said:

Based on the fundamentals of Binomial Expansion, here is the probability of how likely you are to land in each of the outcomes listed on 16 pin Plinko.

1  •  16  •  120  •  560  •  1820  •  4368  •  8008  •  11440  •  12870  •  11440  •  8008  •  4368  •  1820  •  560  •  120  •  16  •  1

Total = 65536
Odds of 1000x = 2 / 65536 = 1 / 32768

[williamshennie9 597]

Thank you for posting this, and taking the time to run these simulations. I'm glad to hear that the new plinko is a bit more fair

[Owly 471]

It's just naked math man. Real fact is: if you didn't hit edge tile quick(losses=base bet*edge tile X) you won't get any profit. Plus now with 0x you busting 2-3x faster, making this game tough af 😕 

Edited February 7 by Owly

[KiXxnTRiXx 245]

6 hours ago, irawk0 said:

Assumption: 65536 x 100 or 6,553,600 rolls. (for easier calculation) Base bet each time: 10 satoshi Starting bankroll: 65,536,000 satoshi

===============================================================================================================================================================================

Old Plinko payout: 1000x 130x 26x 9x 4x 2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 0.2x 2x 4x 9x 26x 130x 1000x

Result: 200 (1000x), 3,200 (130x), 24,000 (26x), 112,000 (9x), 364,000 (4x), 873,600 (2x), 5,176,600 (0.2x) = total of 6,553,600 rolls

End balance: +2,000,000 +4,160,000 +6,240,000 +10,080,000 +14,560,000 +17,472,000 +10,353,200

Final result = 64,865,200 satoshi, overall losing 670,800 satoshi or 1.0235% house edge

===============================================================================================================================================================================

New Plinko payout: 5000x 139x 30x 10x 4x 2x 0x 0x 0x 0x 0x 2x 4x 10x 30x 139x 5000x

Result: 200 (5000x), 3,200 (139x), 24,000 (30x), 112,000 (10x), 364,000 (4x), 873,600 (2x), 5,176,600 (0x) = total of 6,553,600 rolls

End balance: +10,000,000 +4,448,000 +7,200,000 +11,200,000 +14,560,000 +17,472,000 +0

Final result = 64,880,000 satoshi, overall losing 656,000 satoshi or almost exactly 1% house edge

===============================================================================================================================================================================

TLDR: Assuming everything is statistically accurate it's actually very very slightly more profitable playing Plinko now. 

If I messed up on any math please let me know thank you  

Source: 

Ive yet to see profit  just busting hahaha. and ya that may be for a few, but for most players here that 0.0x is a nightmare.. interesting breakdown though! thanks for your theory, i still believe even with having higher multiplier, is not worth the bombardment of 0.0x in high percentage.. most players will just bust even before they get a chance to hitting anything of value.. and even if they did.. the cycle of 0.0x will eat it up again.. so unless the players has a huge bankroll, more often than not, it will always result to bust.

[yololife222 53]

thankyou for posting this when i hawe bigger balance this will help me a lot.

[polor12 92]

wait new plinko pay outs..5000x nice but i see 0's...ok higher payout...but who ever going for it  0x is there instead 0.2x.. is there a higher chance getting those multiples...seeing it drop to 0 would hurt a lot..

[maverick528 635]

The difference now is that the "swings" in profit are bigger.

If several balls in a row hit now the center pockets, your balance goes down very quickly.

To say it in a few words, you win more now when you hit the top multiplier of any plinko configuration, but you need a bigger balance cause the losses in the way to reaching that big multiplier can be bigger than before.

 

[xtinepink 807]

I agree with the need of bigger bankroll, although there are some people who are lucky enough to hit it with few rolls and I can see that there are already many people who hit 5000x.