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Martingale easy increase percentage calculation


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  • Moderator

I think we all already know what martingale strat is.

In classic martingale (for example, betting red in roulette), you always double your bet amount if you lose.

But, lots of times I could see that when betting at multipliers different than 2X ppl dont know what percentage of increase on loss to use.

 

For example, if Im betting 4X in dice, what is the correct increase on losing bets?

The way to calculate it is this=

1) substract 1 from the multiplier payout you will use. In this example, 4 -1 = 3.

2) divide 1 by the result of step 1). So 1/3 = 0.333333333.

4) the correct increase on loss percentage is the result of step 2) multiplied by 100. In this example, 33.33333%, or 34% rounding it up.

 

Another example, single number in roulette, payout multiplier 36X, 1/35 is 0.02857, so the correct increase on loss is 2.857% , or rounding up 2.9%.

 

What happens if you use a bigger increase on loss percentage than the one you get with this calculation? It means that the more rolls it takes to hit, your net profit will grow. If you hit in few rolls you get smaller profit than if you hit in a lot of rolls. But, it also means that your wagered amount on each bet starts growing bigger and bigger faster than using the default percentage....

 

 

 

 

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  • Moderator
26 minutes ago, provablefair said:

 

but thats edge value this means if you increase at 33.3333 and hit it after like 1000 bet too  there will be ( or almost )  0 gain . 

so that is a value to go over to recover all bet done and receive some profit too

If you use exactly the calculated increase on loss, at the end you will have a profit for sure.

And the profit you will get is = initial bet multiplied by (payout-1)

For example if you are betting at 5X with initial bet 100 satoshis, you will get 400 satos profit, it doesnt matter if you hit on the 1st roll or 300 rolls later, if you use exactly the calculated increase on loss (25% in this case). If you want your profit to be bigger if you dont hit on the first rolls, use a bigger percentage, for example 27% increase ....

 

 

 

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thx for explaining. most people use martingale on a 2x which is easy you need to double your bet everytime. I am not a huge fan of martingale or any other strategy but the times I do apply martingale is with multipliers of 4x 8x. in this way you do not have to increase your base to drastically everytime and it prevents of busting fast. However never had luck and busted anyway after all 

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  • Moderator

What i would add to your calculation is, that how people can find out for how long their martingale can take losing streaks. For that they can simply use the following formula:

Base bet: a1

Quotient (increase % +1): q  (If you are increasing your bet amount with 33% on lose then q=1,33)

Streak: n

Used Balance = (a1*(q^n-1))/(q-1)

This means, if you bet with 100 satoshi base bet, 33% increase on loss, and you want to survive 40 losses then you need a balance of:

(100*(1,33^41-1))/(1,33-1) = 36257655 satoshi. Notice the "41", if you put 40 there it means that you get to zero balance on the 40th red bet ;)

What also maverick mentioned 33% won't be enough though, because it is less than the 33,333333% So when you put an increase please focus to put a correct number there ;)

"n"th bet:  a1*(q^n-1) = 100*(1,33^40-1) = 8996334 --> if you payout was 4x then 8996334*4= 35985336‬ in this case you would lose 36257655-35985336‬=272319 satoshi, even if your 41th bet is green. ‬So i would go with 34% increase just how maverick suggested :)

 

It may seem a bit complicated at first, but first try it out on smaller amounts and streaks, and then you will be able calculate it on your own :) I know there are tons of calculators online, but sometimes it is much better when you can count it out on your own, and calculator is there on every PC no need to open up an extra browser tab :P

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Extra useful in depth information by Zoltan too to add on to it. Although it kinda does make my mind abit @_@ with so much calculation formulas in regards to martingale which I just use the basic double on loss amount all the while, lol.

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Wow this is really helpful to know, but probably will take a lot of practice before I will be able to employ Increase-on-Loss strategies effectively.

I want to know if there’s a lot of difference in possible profits:losses between doing this; just winging it depending on the state of my current balance?

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  • 7 months later...
On 6/18/2019 at 7:34 PM, provablefair said:

i agree thats the math 

image.png.4f8b5c8d7964dacbe4d26e717445f835.png

you can see on any martingala calculator like https://provablefair.altervista.org/tools/calculator/

but thats edge value this means if you increase at 33.3333 and hit it after like 1000 bet too  there will be ( or almost )  0 gain . 

so that is a value to go over to recover all bet done and receive some profit too

Wow, didn't knew it, thanks for the info! But did that can help me If I don't know the math? Because usually I calculate percentage without knowing even the basics of the math. However I think that this! calculator can raise my skills in IT tech :) but frankly speaking I started to find some different calculators that can solve my situation with calculation of budget things on my job. So on different forums I found a source https://www.percentagecalculator.co.uk which saves me more time to calculate the hard thing for my job.

Edited by TillLindemann
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I was asking about this equation the other day. I really needed a math formula to figure out how many bets I could martingale to recover balance before busting and voila. It took my math nerds to whip out their super nerdy calculators but how do you think they bought this expensive equipment?! With looks.... no, with stake winnings...... no, they just are smart like that. Thanks guys!

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