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How the Suggestion Feature works in Video Poker - Tips/Calculation

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Simply the Video Poker suggestions are the same as you would get if you input your hand on this website - https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/hand-analyzer/

P.S Im looking to make a Hand probability calculator and hopefully into a bot one day where you choose the outcome u want to hit and let the bot run :D Work in progress. If you have any questions regarding the calcs or found something faulty you can let me know! :) 

Does the suggestion mean higher probability? How to use the suggestion to our advantage? What to take from this? 

image.png.cbceaa709683b2d6a82e9c89cbff4eaf.pngimage.png.79fff7c2877cfa8262b64eb1de00653c.png

Using the website and inputting the current hand, would give you the results on the left with many more rows. Clearly the suggestion does the same and suggests to hold the card which could give the greatest "Expected Return". The highlighted cards of each play means the cards that have to be held, before dealing.

Expected Return - Is the value of all probabilities multiplied by its payout for holding a particular card(s). Eg. .. 2 Pair odds (holding Q) x 2 + .... + Flush odds (holding Q) x 6 and so on. 

So does expected return always mean the path with higher probability - Not necessarily! Below are simple calculations showing the odds and its payout to obtain the Expected return for a particular play.

EXAMPLE 1 (Holding Q♠️
Holding this card there are numerous outcomes: Pair of Jacks or Better, 2 Pair, 3 of a Kind, Straight, Flush, Full House, 4 of a Kind, Straight Flush & Royal Flush.

For ease of understanding, only a few are expressed. Skip the calcs to the bottom for the results and conclusions. 

Outcome                                                       Calculation                                                                              Odds %                        Payout                                  Return 

Jacks or Higher                     3((4/47) x (3/46)) + 3/37                                                                                     8.0481                              x1                                     0.080481
(JJ, QQ, KK, AA)

2 Pair                                     [(3/47) x 8 x (4/36) x (3/45)] + [(3/47) x 4 x (3/46) x (2/45)]                             0.37                                  x2                                      0.0074
(QQ, XX)

3 of.........                               ..............................................                                                                                   .....                                   x3                                      ..............

Straight                                3[(4/47) x (4/46) x (4/45) x (3/44)]                                                                      0.0135                               x4                                     0.000538
(8,9,10,J,Q)                            Excluding the straight flushes and Royal Flush
(9,10,J,Q,K)
(10,J,Q,K,A)

...........                                    ..............................................                                                                                  .....                                    x...                                     ..............

Straight Flush                      2[(1/47) x (1/46) x (1/45) x (1/44)]                                                                   0.0000467                            x50                                   0.0000234
(8,9,10,J,Q) ♠️                      Excluding the Royal Flush                                                                                                                     (x60 is used in Stake)
(9,10,J,Q,K) ♠️  

Royal Flush                          (1/47) x (1/46) x (1/45) x (1/44)                                                                         0.0000234                           x800                                    0.1869
(10,J,Q,K,A) ♠️  

                                                                                                                                                                            ~ 8.43197                             Expected Return    =     0.4831918

EXAMPLE 2 (Holding 2♦️, 4♦️, 6♦️, 5♥️)
Holding these cards there is only one outcome: A Straight 

Straight                                 4/47                                                                                                                         8.5106                                 x4                                      0.3404
(2,3,4,5,6)

 

TIPS
As you can see although the expected return for this outcome is lower, it does have a slightly greater probability of hitting. Most likely in the first outcome you would get a pair, 2 pair or 3 of a kind, but usually nothing or just pair of jacks or higher with almost the same probability. So using the suggestion for this example wouldn't have been the best option. Yes of course, it takes into consideration the Royal Flush and the Straight Flushes and if you are one that is chasing that, then this doesn't matter. But for the ones who are trying to play smart and profit, it is not best to always use the suggestions. It is NOT the path of higher probability all the time - it is the maximum you can get with your base bet instead (keeping the straight flushes and etc an open possibility).

The probability of the upcoming cards will always be taken by 47. As the 5 initial cards can never come again (52 - 5 = 47). This will be important when it comes to 3 of a Kinds. Which is also slightly more complicated to calculate.

PROOF OF CALCULATION

Using the following example, which has lesser outcomes.

image.png.7113e91ecd89ba6973bf1ca66aacad94.png

EXAMPLE 3 (Holding J, Q, K, A) ♣️
Holding these cards there are numerous outcomes: Pair of Jacks or Better, Straight, Flush & Royal Flush.

Outcome                                          Calculation                                                                                          Odds %                                         Payout                              Return

Jacks or Higher                                   4(3/47)                                                                                                    25.53                                                x1                                     0.2553
(JJ, QQ, KK, AA)

Straight                                                3/47                                                                                                          6.38                                                x4                                     0.2553
(10,J,Q,K,A)                                         Excluding the straight flush = Royal Flush

Flush                                                     8/47                                                                                                        17.02                                                x6                                    1.02127
(2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) ♣️

Royal Flush                                          1/47                                                                                                         2.128                                             x800                                 17.02127   
(10,J,Q,K,A) ♣️

                                                                                                                                                                            ~ 51.058                                           Expected Return    =     18.553191

Yes, I was very bored and since I love Poker wanted to check more about it. In fact I did learn a lot too. And NO I did not find these calculations online, I tried them all by myself and came up with all these conclusions. If there is a calculation, I'm gonna be so pissed cause this took quite some time lol. 

Hope this helps anyone in anyway :) Don't just follow the suggestions and don't always think going for that one pair, two pair or three of a kind is better than going for a straight or flush. You have to play manually for a decent run and play with some skill. Video Poker isn't just about luck! :P If you're looking for the Royal Flush I think in most cases the suggestion will take you there since the x800 increases the expected return by a lot. But we all know how annoying the autobet works for Video Poker xD 

Cheers.

Edited by GKD09 | out of place

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This is the first time I’ve seen this way of looking at it. 

I understand your goal is to play manually and not prioritising the Royal all the time in order to maintain a particular session’s profit. 

The odds increase by quite a large stretch if we use proper strategy. Thus, I feel even if this might work in the short run, ultimately won’t we end up losing more if not gearing for the Royal Flush? 

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Wow, this must be the post/guide of the year! Awesome job! I really like what I see, the only thing is that the payouts are deliberately lowered compared to the odds to create that 1% house edge, which means players lose over the long run.

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On 6/19/2019 at 5:32 PM, nuuuitsjdragon said:

This is the first time I’ve seen this way of looking at it. 

I understand your goal is to play manually and not prioritising the Royal all the time in order to maintain a particular session’s profit. 

The odds increase by quite a large stretch if we use proper strategy. Thus, I feel even if this might work in the short run, ultimately won’t we end up losing more if not gearing for the Royal Flush? 

Yes, thats the whole point :D because I was curious too as to why the suggestion shows such random cards to hold at times.

On 6/19/2019 at 5:44 PM, williamshennie9 said:

Wow, this must be the post/guide of the year! Awesome job! I really like what I see, the only thing is that the payouts are deliberately lowered compared to the odds to create that 1% house edge, which means players lose over the long run.

Haha thanks :P and I believe they changed the house edge on video poker if im not wrong. I remember like it was below 1% or that was Dice. I'm not too sure.

On 6/19/2019 at 5:37 PM, yololife222 said:

Damn okay isnt this juct copy paste?But what ewer thanks for information, will look into this when will hawe money :).

No yolo I wouldn't do that.... 

On 6/19/2019 at 5:59 PM, polor12 said:

copy paste how much of the rewards do get for doing that.. i bet it was a disappointment.. 

Wow. So just cause I put effort into something it becomes a copy paste? @polor12 please please find me the original then.... 

You probably won't cus it's at the back of my note book. -.-

pic1.thumb.jpg.601533a46f3640f8c45d445999a04374.jpgpic2.thumb.jpg.5abd189b25dd92b2ab80991ba4553a76.jpg

Love how ppl just assume stuff 😏😐

Edited by GKD09

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Nice topic; I really like Video Poker and every day I play it.  Don`t like the "suggestions", better go for my own.  Most of the time I have a first hand pair I choose it plus another card and makes me results.  Suggestions will only tell you to take that single pair and wait for a 3 of a kind.... Good luck.

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Definitely a great, very detailed informational post, whether it was copy/paste or not.  From what I can see, the suggestions are simply the same as any Video Poker machine at a casino or online... it just suggests the best hold cards to win any amount and does not take into account whether it is 1x or 1000x.  Thanks for the breakdown though... good info!

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Why people think it is copy paste is because there are rare long topics like these in the forum so they think it is just a copy paste. And thanks for this this just allows me to look at VP in an another way. 

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56 minutes ago, Kate said:

Why people think it is copy paste is because there are rare long topics like these in the forum so they think it is just a copy paste. And thanks for this this just allows me to look at VP in an another way. 

Thanks! :) Glad at least few people can appreciate it!

Although I think not many have even seen it as it went quickly out of the recent topics due to challenges and all... Would feel better if more people get to see it. :P 

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Very helpful information I love when people find out things like that, but the most important question did you have any success when applying thi? For sure I will try it out somewhere in the future ;) 

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Wow, actually quite the impressive write up of how it works! I've never known how the suggestion feature operated and always wondered, and used it! Now I know what i'm using :P

On a slightly different note, I'm surprised we haven't had people accusing VP suggestion of scam to get us to pick wrong cards LOL!

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On 8/26/2019 at 2:05 AM, wngo123 said:

Very helpful information I love when people find out things like that, but the most important question did you have any success when applying thi? For sure I will try it out somewhere in the future ;) 

Thank you and @Enzo, I was just really curious myself and clearly had a lot of time xD

Well yeah it really depends on how you play. The most important thing is to not always go for the suggested cards as it doesn't always give you the hand with the highest probability. It will always take into account the royal flush and straight flushes. 

So if you know poker good enough you'll not just choose the suggested cards, like in the first example :) Because clearly a straight looks more likely. It had worked fairly okay for me but you always need that extra luck :P

On 8/26/2019 at 10:30 AM, Enzo said:

On a slightly different note, I'm surprised we haven't had people accusing VP suggestion of scam to get us to pick wrong cards LOL!

Hahaha oh yeaah. Just like how they accuse mines random picker and keno too 😂😂

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You explain it in detail and very clearly. if the sample is taken from the cards above, I usually make the decision on example 2, which is to hold 2 4 6 5, and I hope to get 3 and make it straight

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9 hours ago, sheenazbay said:

You explain it in detail and very clearly. if the sample is taken from the cards above, I usually make the decision on example 2, which is to hold 2 4 6 5, and I hope to get 3 and make it straight

That's nice of you to say.. I tried my best to make it clear. :) Exactly I would do the same!!! I think the ones that play poker often would do this more than the ones who just started playing video poker here.

Glad it helped @djonox :D 

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This is the most proffesional post I have ever seen on stake forum :D amazing well made analysis and

I havent even knew that there is something like that site , thank you a lot for this ;) 

its hard to tell what is the truth becasue u cannot tell but in my opinion suggestion always gives us the best option to hit something in best balance profit / chance to win ?

anyways good luck man and thank you again for this amazing post ;)

everybody play responsible and enjoy your play ;) 

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Ohh very nice information about video poker I really don't know how to play this game .

I think see this now I understand some how I play this game .

I next time follow these tips when I play video poker

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