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Maths and Probability in gambling


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I know most of us believe in numbers. Well, as an engineer, I live with it.

Like most of us have different strategies, base bets, and length of time playing.

I often keep in my notepad variations of different strategies that I often use on different sequences, which may result in a considerably lesser chance of me losing but the loss streaks needed still somehow bites me.

Sometimes I think that the scripts in dice games involve an AI that somehow predicts our patterns and shits and somehow formulates a set of numbers that will have us lose at some point. I don't really know, but these winning and losing chances, percentages, loss streaks, win streaks, or any numbers connected to gambling is not that effective anymore.

Hell I even won a lot more when I was a beginner and bet randomly. Lol

My question is, do we really need to trust these percentages and chances? If so, How can they even increase our chances of winning?

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2 hours ago, williamshennie9 said:

Well, we kind of have to trust the math, otherwise Stake would not be provably fair. Nobody has been able to disprove the fact that Stake is provably fair so far, and also, strategies are just based on probabilities, in reality anything can happen.

Yep, it's just that it's really hard to trust my instincts with numbers in gambling. It always fail me. HAHA

29 minutes ago, DreamStage said:

There is no such thing as AI involved with gambling probability.

Yeah, I know. I just couldn't help but wonder because I saw a developer before that made a gambling bot. It uses an AI that calculates probability and considers bet results to predict the next numbers that will come up. I just don't know if it can be applied the other way around, wherein the game itself can have such AI

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I tend to rely on math and probability when I bet for higher multipliers. The game can only hold out on certain X's for so long before it either releases them slowly, or in clumps. I tend to also focus on the positive or negative Expected Value of the casino I'm playing on. If it's negative i'll try not to play there with too much as I know that the site will be reluctant to give me what I want. However if it's positive I can almost guarantee a win in one way or another.

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  • 2 months later...

I also play dice,. Sometimes, I am thinking that this is manipulated/Artificial intelligence. I am recording about more than 10,000 bets with different chances. During  100 free roll, it looks like a distributed fair . My strategy is free-rolling first before making a bet. For example Im playing with 90% chance of winning, during my  first 40 roll I got 15 red and 25 green so that it  has less room for red if you continue to roll up to 100 rolls with small marginal error. But in actual gambling,  i got encounter many times got more 35 reds in 100 rolls even you have 90% of chance. It is very wide marginal error.

Edited by huja126
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  • 4 months later...
On 9/16/2019 at 1:25 AM, Saaho said:

Just in the short term betting our maths. In long run we ended with just loss. I used to play low payout in single seed max 100 200 bets and got decent profit every time ( I mean most of the time 😅 )

Exactly. probability theory can be used for short term. Even, sometimes too hard to find the target number when the base bet increased to keep profit when green.

If your balance available for 1000 rolls, you're not guaranteed to get green at 100x.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I tend to rely on math and probability when I bet for higher multipliers. The game can only hold out on certain X's for so long before it either releases them slowly, or in clumps. I tend to also focus on the positive or negative Expected Value of the casino I'm playing on. If it's negative i'll try not to play there with too much as I know that the site will be reluctant to give me what I want. However if it's positive I can almost guarantee a win in one way or another.

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