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Jonata

Strategies and risks (Tutorial of moto0000)

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!!!!!!!! (THIS IS A TUTORIAL OF A FRIEND, VERY EXPERIENCED IN FAIR PROBABILITY, WE DECIDED TO SHARE WITH YOU.)

Today I will try, as best I can, to explain how to create a strategy to be used in Stake Data.

Before you create your strategy, put some things in your little head, the basics of the game says:
- The higher the profit, the higher the risk;
- The higher the initial bet (quantity), the higher the profit, therefore the greater the risk;
- The greater the loss (loss of events), the greater the profit, therefore, the greater the risk;
- Chance is the least important factor here, as long as it is used with the initial bet and the appropriate losses, the chance does not interfere much with the gains and the risk, believe it or not.

How to decide the initial bet:
Calculate a relationship between your balance and the initial bet.
Example:
- If your box is 100k, playing with 1 satoshi you will be using an initial bet of 0.001% of your balance, or 1 to 100,000;
- using the same ratio, if your balance is 200K, play with 2 satoshis.
Remember that by raising the initial bet, you will increase your risk.

How to decide the loss:
use this very simple mathematical formula: 100 / (Payout - 1).
Example:
- Playing with a 14% chance, the payout will be 7.0714;
- 7.0714 minus 1 equals 6.0714;
- 100 divided by 6.0714 is equal to 16.470665744 ...
- You must round this number, with at least 2 decimal places, we will get 16.48;
- use at least 16.48% of the loss.
Nothing prevents you from using 16.5% or 17% or 20%, etc ..., it will be more profitable, but remember that the higher the loss, the greater the risk of breakage.
Do not use values smaller than calculated, otherwise you will walk backwards, lowering your box a little bit.
WARNING: For strategies with low probabilities, such as 1%, you should use 4 or even 6 decimal places on the loss, otherwise the strategy may lose its accuracy completely.

Now you have an initial bet and a loss ... does it work?

I will consider this strategy: 200K cash, 2 values, 14% chance, 16.48% loss.
Assuming you will play in the automatic (you will not multiply from head to toe until 16.48):
the first thing to do is to determine if this strategy will work on Stake.
- increase the value of the initial bet with the value of the loss in the case of 2 + 16.48%, which is equal to 2.3296 satoshis ... unfortunately this strategy will NOT work in Stake's auto, since 2.32 will be rounded, returning to being 2, that is, the value of the bet will not be changed by the value of the loss, the auto will not work.
- It's important to understand that this above strategy is perfectly valid, it's great, BUT, due to the rounding system used, it will not work on Stake.
- If you have any questions, take a quick test on Stake's own automatic system, if the value of the second bet equals the value of the first bet lost, the strategy is not viable for Stake use.

How to adapt a strategy to Stake:

Basically we have 3 alternative paths to follow:

- Increase the initial bet: by recalculating the above calculations, you will find that from 4 initial betting satoshis, this strategy will work. But that implies a substantial increase in risk, so we will NOT follow that path.
- increase the loss: if you use a loss of 25%, this strategy will work because 2 + 25% = 2.5, which will be rounded to 3. But equally, this implies a substantial increase in risk, so we will NOT follow this way.
- change the chance: do you remember that I said that chance is the least decisive factor here, as long as it is used with initial bet and appropriate losses? The correct in this case is to change the chance when recalculating the loss. Keeping the same box, the same initial bet, changes the chance of 20%. The payment will be 4.95. Calculate 100 / (4.95 - 1) and get the loss of 25.3164 ... which will be rounded down to 25.32%

Ready! Now you have your own strategy, functional and valid:
200K box, 2 satoshis, 20% chance, 25.32% loss (minimum).

How to analyze the quality of a strategy:

I dare write a routine in javascript to do this analysis.
http://fiddle.jshell.net/2w9m0t1b/7/show/light/

Fill in the basic data, such as money and initial bet. Take a chance. The minimum loss will automatically be calculated and suggested whenever you change the odds.

Click the "Calculate" button and wait for the result. You'll see how many losses your strategy will support. The persistence of the strategy will be calculated on the basis of the number of losses and the payment.

Now you can "play" the numbers by changing the initial loss or bet and see how the changes you make change the results. You can also test here if a strategy is viable in Stake's auto, the value of bet # 2 must be greater than the value of # 1.

According to the persistence value, I classify the strategies as follows:
- Value below 4: This strategy sucks, you will break in seconds.
- Value between 4 and 6: this strategy is bad, you will break soon.
- Value between 6 and 8: This strategy is reasonable, you will need luck to win with it.
- Value between 8 and 9: this strategy is good, you can win with it before breaking.
- Value above 9: this strategy is great, you break when you get unlucky, which will fatally happen.

This persistence index is a totally mine invention, so its classification reflects my opinion, feel free to disagree or otherwise rank.

The persistence index reflects persistence (dããã), is not an indicator of profitability, but, in general, the greater the persistence, the lower profitability and the risk.

Of course, the use of loss values below the minimum will generate a strategy with high persistence, but this will give guaranteed damages. But if you're stubborn enough to use a loss amount below the minimum that's written next to it, well, then you deserve to have a fuck.

One more detail: the rounding methods used in this routine may be slightly different from those used in Stake, so the values may differ slightly, especially the values found in the "Profit to Victory" column.

Final considerations:

Everything I wrote above is intended to help in creating "safe" strategies, that is, presenting less risk of rupture. This kind of strategy will not lead you to a quick profit, ever.

If you really want to accelerate your earnings, you can increase your initial bet or loss slightly, but be aware that this will increase your risk.

So the next time you break, before you show up in the conversation that the machine stole me or any other crazy genre, stop and analyze your strategy, you'll see that it was probably your fault.

There are better and worse strategies ... there are no infatuation strategies and whoever says otherwise is malicious or very muggy.

Good luck to everyone !

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On 23/11/2017 at 9:34 PM, Jonata said:

!!!!!!!! (THIS IS A TUTORIAL OF A FRIEND, VERY EXPERIENCED IN FAIR PROBABILITY, WE DECIDED TO SHARE WITH YOU.)

Today I will try, as best I can, to explain how to create a strategy to be used in Stake Data.

Before you create your strategy, put some things in your little head, the basics of the game says:
- The higher the profit, the higher the risk;
- The higher the initial bet (quantity), the higher the profit, therefore the greater the risk;
- The greater the loss (loss of events), the greater the profit, therefore, the greater the risk;
- Chance is the least important factor here, as long as it is used with the initial bet and the appropriate losses, the chance does not interfere much with the gains and the risk, believe it or not.

How to decide the initial bet:
Calculate a relationship between your balance and the initial bet.
Example:
- If your box is 100k, playing with 1 satoshi you will be using an initial bet of 0.001% of your balance, or 1 to 100,000;
- using the same ratio, if your balance is 200K, play with 2 satoshis.
Remember that by raising the initial bet, you will increase your risk.

How to decide the loss:
use this very simple mathematical formula: 100 / (Payout - 1).
Example:
- Playing with a 14% chance, the payout will be 7.0714;
- 7.0714 minus 1 equals 6.0714;
- 100 divided by 6.0714 is equal to 16.470665744 ...
- You must round this number, with at least 2 decimal places, we will get 16.48;
- use at least 16.48% of the loss.
Nothing prevents you from using 16.5% or 17% or 20%, etc ..., it will be more profitable, but remember that the higher the loss, the greater the risk of breakage.
Do not use values smaller than calculated, otherwise you will walk backwards, lowering your box a little bit.
WARNING: For strategies with low probabilities, such as 1%, you should use 4 or even 6 decimal places on the loss, otherwise the strategy may lose its accuracy completely.

Now you have an initial bet and a loss ... does it work?

I will consider this strategy: 200K cash, 2 values, 14% chance, 16.48% loss.
Assuming you will play in the automatic (you will not multiply from head to toe until 16.48):
the first thing to do is to determine if this strategy will work on Stake.
- increase the value of the initial bet with the value of the loss in the case of 2 + 16.48%, which is equal to 2.3296 satoshis ... unfortunately this strategy will NOT work in Stake's auto, since 2.32 will be rounded, returning to being 2, that is, the value of the bet will not be changed by the value of the loss, the auto will not work.
- It's important to understand that this above strategy is perfectly valid, it's great, BUT, due to the rounding system used, it will not work on Stake.
- If you have any questions, take a quick test on Stake's own automatic system, if the value of the second bet equals the value of the first bet lost, the strategy is not viable for Stake use.

How to adapt a strategy to Stake:

Basically we have 3 alternative paths to follow:

- Increase the initial bet: by recalculating the above calculations, you will find that from 4 initial betting satoshis, this strategy will work. But that implies a substantial increase in risk, so we will NOT follow that path.
- increase the loss: if you use a loss of 25%, this strategy will work because 2 + 25% = 2.5, which will be rounded to 3. But equally, this implies a substantial increase in risk, so we will NOT follow this way.
- change the chance: do you remember that I said that chance is the least decisive factor here, as long as it is used with initial bet and appropriate losses? The correct in this case is to change the chance when recalculating the loss. Keeping the same box, the same initial bet, changes the chance of 20%. The payment will be 4.95. Calculate 100 / (4.95 - 1) and get the loss of 25.3164 ... which will be rounded down to 25.32%

Ready! Now you have your own strategy, functional and valid:
200K box, 2 satoshis, 20% chance, 25.32% loss (minimum).

How to analyze the quality of a strategy:

I dare write a routine in javascript to do this analysis.
http://fiddle.jshell.net/2w9m0t1b/7/show/light/

Fill in the basic data, such as money and initial bet. Take a chance. The minimum loss will automatically be calculated and suggested whenever you change the odds.

Click the "Calculate" button and wait for the result. You'll see how many losses your strategy will support. The persistence of the strategy will be calculated on the basis of the number of losses and the payment.

Now you can "play" the numbers by changing the initial loss or bet and see how the changes you make change the results. You can also test here if a strategy is viable in Stake's auto, the value of bet # 2 must be greater than the value of # 1.

According to the persistence value, I classify the strategies as follows:
- Value below 4: This strategy sucks, you will break in seconds.
- Value between 4 and 6: this strategy is bad, you will break soon.
- Value between 6 and 8: This strategy is reasonable, you will need luck to win with it.
- Value between 8 and 9: this strategy is good, you can win with it before breaking.
- Value above 9: this strategy is great, you break when you get unlucky, which will fatally happen.

This persistence index is a totally mine invention, so its classification reflects my opinion, feel free to disagree or otherwise rank.

The persistence index reflects persistence (dããã), is not an indicator of profitability, but, in general, the greater the persistence, the lower profitability and the risk.

Of course, the use of loss values below the minimum will generate a strategy with high persistence, but this will give guaranteed damages. But if you're stubborn enough to use a loss amount below the minimum that's written next to it, well, then you deserve to have a fuck.

One more detail: the rounding methods used in this routine may be slightly different from those used in Stake, so the values may differ slightly, especially the values found in the "Profit to Victory" column.

Final considerations:

Everything I wrote above is intended to help in creating "safe" strategies, that is, presenting less risk of rupture. This kind of strategy will not lead you to a quick profit, ever.

If you really want to accelerate your earnings, you can increase your initial bet or loss slightly, but be aware that this will increase your risk.

So the next time you break, before you show up in the conversation that the machine stole me or any other crazy genre, stop and analyze your strategy, you'll see that it was probably your fault.

There are better and worse strategies ... there are no infatuation strategies and whoever says otherwise is malicious or very muggy.

Good luck to everyone !

dang your topic from 23 nov. why until now it appear. all infor clearly thankss

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5 minutes ago, dreramon said:

I tried using some of these strategies sometimes but i find that just doing my thing when i feel like works better . Thanks for posting 

you mean do what you like no need to focus on any strats xD good bro . but we should mix all of them. play this strat in 5-10 mins then change to others 

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3 minutes ago, dreramon said:

Yeah because some days a strategy would be working and giving profit then next day the same strategy will bust me lol so as you said i just mix it and do a bit of everything.  

true. im up to 1m5 from 600k with 1.456x in 6 hours. but only 30 second to lost all. last night , i couldnt sleeep well 

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Maby i will use it 2-3 times to test it but  i have played more then 100 games and i understand only one. there is no strategyes to win 100% every strategy is short use thanks to shear your method

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Very well explained. I've read it carefully and I agree with you/your friend or whoever wrote this. It goes on the same principle I go whenever I bet. I made some profit using it and as I can see so did you. I hope that more will figure out that even if gambling is about luck, it is also about probabilities and math and everything can be calculated and nothing is fully random, especially when it comes to computers.

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On 11/23/2017 at 10:34 PM, Jonata said:

!!!!!!!! (THIS IS A TUTORIAL OF A FRIEND, VERY EXPERIENCED IN FAIR PROBABILITY, WE DECIDED TO SHARE WITH YOU.)

Today I will try, as best I can, to explain how to create a strategy to be used in Stake Data.

Before you create your strategy, put some things in your little head, the basics of the game says:
- The higher the profit, the higher the risk;
- The higher the initial bet (quantity), the higher the profit, therefore the greater the risk;
- The greater the loss (loss of events), the greater the profit, therefore, the greater the risk;
- Chance is the least important factor here, as long as it is used with the initial bet and the appropriate losses, the chance does not interfere much with the gains and the risk, believe it or not.

How to decide the initial bet:
Calculate a relationship between your balance and the initial bet.
Example:
- If your box is 100k, playing with 1 satoshi you will be using an initial bet of 0.001% of your balance, or 1 to 100,000;
- using the same ratio, if your balance is 200K, play with 2 satoshis.
Remember that by raising the initial bet, you will increase your risk.

How to decide the loss:
use this very simple mathematical formula: 100 / (Payout - 1).
Example:
- Playing with a 14% chance, the payout will be 7.0714;
- 7.0714 minus 1 equals 6.0714;
- 100 divided by 6.0714 is equal to 16.470665744 ...
- You must round this number, with at least 2 decimal places, we will get 16.48;
- use at least 16.48% of the loss.
Nothing prevents you from using 16.5% or 17% or 20%, etc ..., it will be more profitable, but remember that the higher the loss, the greater the risk of breakage.
Do not use values smaller than calculated, otherwise you will walk backwards, lowering your box a little bit.
WARNING: For strategies with low probabilities, such as 1%, you should use 4 or even 6 decimal places on the loss, otherwise the strategy may lose its accuracy completely.

Now you have an initial bet and a loss ... does it work?

I will consider this strategy: 200K cash, 2 values, 14% chance, 16.48% loss.
Assuming you will play in the automatic (you will not multiply from head to toe until 16.48):
the first thing to do is to determine if this strategy will work on Stake.
- increase the value of the initial bet with the value of the loss in the case of 2 + 16.48%, which is equal to 2.3296 satoshis ... unfortunately this strategy will NOT work in Stake's auto, since 2.32 will be rounded, returning to being 2, that is, the value of the bet will not be changed by the value of the loss, the auto will not work.
- It's important to understand that this above strategy is perfectly valid, it's great, BUT, due to the rounding system used, it will not work on Stake.
- If you have any questions, take a quick test on Stake's own automatic system, if the value of the second bet equals the value of the first bet lost, the strategy is not viable for Stake use.

How to adapt a strategy to Stake:

Basically we have 3 alternative paths to follow:

- Increase the initial bet: by recalculating the above calculations, you will find that from 4 initial betting satoshis, this strategy will work. But that implies a substantial increase in risk, so we will NOT follow that path.
- increase the loss: if you use a loss of 25%, this strategy will work because 2 + 25% = 2.5, which will be rounded to 3. But equally, this implies a substantial increase in risk, so we will NOT follow this way.
- change the chance: do you remember that I said that chance is the least decisive factor here, as long as it is used with initial bet and appropriate losses? The correct in this case is to change the chance when recalculating the loss. Keeping the same box, the same initial bet, changes the chance of 20%. The payment will be 4.95. Calculate 100 / (4.95 - 1) and get the loss of 25.3164 ... which will be rounded down to 25.32%

Ready! Now you have your own strategy, functional and valid:
200K box, 2 satoshis, 20% chance, 25.32% loss (minimum).

How to analyze the quality of a strategy:

I dare write a routine in javascript to do this analysis.
http://fiddle.jshell.net/2w9m0t1b/7/show/light/

Fill in the basic data, such as money and initial bet. Take a chance. The minimum loss will automatically be calculated and suggested whenever you change the odds.

Click the "Calculate" button and wait for the result. You'll see how many losses your strategy will support. The persistence of the strategy will be calculated on the basis of the number of losses and the payment.

Now you can "play" the numbers by changing the initial loss or bet and see how the changes you make change the results. You can also test here if a strategy is viable in Stake's auto, the value of bet # 2 must be greater than the value of # 1.

According to the persistence value, I classify the strategies as follows:
- Value below 4: This strategy sucks, you will break in seconds.
- Value between 4 and 6: this strategy is bad, you will break soon.
- Value between 6 and 8: This strategy is reasonable, you will need luck to win with it.
- Value between 8 and 9: this strategy is good, you can win with it before breaking.
- Value above 9: this strategy is great, you break when you get unlucky, which will fatally happen.

This persistence index is a totally mine invention, so its classification reflects my opinion, feel free to disagree or otherwise rank.

The persistence index reflects persistence (dããã), is not an indicator of profitability, but, in general, the greater the persistence, the lower profitability and the risk.

Of course, the use of loss values below the minimum will generate a strategy with high persistence, but this will give guaranteed damages. But if you're stubborn enough to use a loss amount below the minimum that's written next to it, well, then you deserve to have a fuck.

One more detail: the rounding methods used in this routine may be slightly different from those used in Stake, so the values may differ slightly, especially the values found in the "Profit to Victory" column.

Final considerations:

Everything I wrote above is intended to help in creating "safe" strategies, that is, presenting less risk of rupture. This kind of strategy will not lead you to a quick profit, ever.

If you really want to accelerate your earnings, you can increase your initial bet or loss slightly, but be aware that this will increase your risk.

So the next time you break, before you show up in the conversation that the machine stole me or any other crazy genre, stop and analyze your strategy, you'll see that it was probably your fault.

There are better and worse strategies ... there are no infatuation strategies and whoever says otherwise is malicious or very muggy.

Good luck to everyone !

I love how accurate this is, and it is correct once you keep adding on base bet while balance is getting higher also, you will lose more. 

In the end, patience is needed in autobetting like 200k with only 2 sats as base, it will take a while but it is safer than betting 10 satoshis.

I will do safer plays now more often than play with higher risks and lose it all.

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