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itsmepuffd

[Ripple Path to GLORY] A journal of Dice

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The other day I logged into a crypto exchange I have not been to since mid 2018. To my surprise I had $160 worth of BTC just sitting there, doing nothing. I knew I had to do something with this. A couple of days earlier I spoke to a friend of mine, who told me about Stake and that he had been relatively successful while also having a bit of fun on the site. That stuck with me and I knew what these $160 had to do ... GROW! 🤑

I got my BTC converted to EOS and transferred over to Stake (cheaper than transferring pure BTC) and I started playing around. I have ultimately settled on Dice as my game for this challenge. How far am I going to take it? I don't know. How long will I keep going? Till I eventually bust (while hopefully preserving some profits in the process) 😅

I am going to be using this place as a showcase of my progress towards riches and glory on Dice, a collection of my thoughts and possible shifts in strategy between updates and such, because why not? I joined Stake on 6/18/2020 and started tracking my bets from the 19th while testing a couple things out.

So, down to the nitty gritty part of everything and how I have been doing so far. 

 

Note: I have converted my EOS to XRP for bot support, hence the name change as well.

 

  • 'The Sheet'

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QFmbyZrG3t1aq4Cp8BOg7skI9dARszOt1JiR5YfOaqE/edit?usp=sharing

 

  • The Strategy

All bets towards this project will be done on full auto play, no plays done manually will count towards my progress.

Strategy can and will change throughout, this will be reflected in update posts with info on what I have been doing.

As with most Dice strategies I am running a version of Martingale with bet increase percentages altered.

This basically means, if I lose a bet the bet amount will increase by X% to try and recover the previous bet and net a small profit in the process.

All pretty standard stuff that will eventually bust at some point leaving you with nothing.

All betting sessions are screengrabbed from the sites Live Stats feature, kept and documented in a Google Docs spreadsheet (will follow)

 

  • What I have done so far

Before placing my first bet, I ran some quick probability calculations over on http://qwert.in/ to get a rough estimate of how I would go about my bets. 

Following that I ran a series of simulations using Suntjie's DiceBot (https://bot.seuntjie.com/) to get an idea of profit ranges for x amount of bets, I ran roughly 500.000 simulations on a couple different strategies. From here it was on to betting. 

 - First day (June 19th) I did a couple sessions to get a feel for the site and ultimately settled on a strategy of 19% win rate with a +25% on loss bet increase and a 0.00005 base bet. This meant a 0.000926% chance of busting. I did a total of 75.186 bets on this day with a profit of ~4.89 EOS (~$12.37). 

 - Second day (June 20th) I altered strategy a bit. I went over to a 9.9% win rate with a 12% on loss bet increase and a base bet starting at 0.000055 eos. This meant a 0.001956% chance to bust. I was doing smaller sessions throughout the day setting a "stop on profit" on the Dice, so that I could re-assess the situation multiple times a day. After each session I would up my base bet, but staying within the 0.001956% chance to bust, I went from 0.000055 to 0.000067 throughout the day. I did a total of 163.504 bets on this day with a profit of ~17.35 EOS (~$43.90). 

 - Today (June 21st) I haven't been doing much. I kept with the same strategy from yesterday for a single session of 1.69 EOS profit. I then altered strategy and went over to a 49.5% win rate with a +100% on loss bet increase and a 0.00017 base bet. This meant a 0.000904% chance to bust and I had initially set my "Stop on profit" at 7.25 EOS while I was out of the house doing other stuff. The site choked at some point and stopped mid bet, so when I came back it had not run as long as I wanted. Currently running now with a profit so far of 3.5 EOS and will keep going till the end of the night, currently at roughly 41.500 bets on this session alone. 

It's a lot of bets. Like a whole lot of bets. But that's how it is, I am in this for the long haul. This is by no means a "get big profits fast by snagging a x1000 multiplier", this is a grind, a long fucking grind. 

 

  • Status, June 19th & June 20th

Starting Bankroll (EOS) : 63.64450000

Bets Placed : 238.690

Total Wagered : ~158.14 EOS (~$400.10)

Profit : ~22.24 EOS (~$56.27) 

New Bankroll (EOS) : 85.88529350

 

I am still not sure how to do the format for this, this whole thing will be undergoing different iterations till I settle on a proper format going forward. First proper update will follow later tonight when I go to bed and will be regarding today June 21st. 🙂

If there's anything people want to hear about, want featured in the updates I do post or anything else, please let me know. I am looking forward to this journey, which hopefully will not feature any re-fills of the account haha, although it is inevitable in the long run. Sorry for the wall of text in this first post, not even sure if this is something the forum is interested in, but I thought why not - since I'm tracking my progress anyway.

 

Thanks for reading, and I hope you all get big wins 🤑

 

Edited by itsmepuffd | added google sheet link & altered title a bit

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Episode # 001 - The Big Oof!

So yesterday was interesting. I told myself to do an update before I went to bed and everything was looking great. I had a session running that was nearing 4.0 EOS in profit, said to myself, "let's get to 4 and then call it a night" ... And then things happened, I will be referring to it as 'The Big Oof!'.

Was running a x2 payout with 100% increase on loss, your straight up typical martingale strategy. Doing a base bet of 0.00017 EOS I could withstand a 0.000904% chance to bust. Less than what I had been doing so far in the challenge. Now I had been somewhat close before, reaching upwards of near 90 reds in a row with a max of 104 before bust, but still within reason and some good profits to match on those runs. Last night was not one of those nights, and I forgot to set a stop loss before going fully in the hole - stupid me. 

I ended up taking a -40.80 EOS hit to my bankroll, nearly halving it in the process (left with 46.768) .. ouch ! 🥵

 

  • Status, June 21st

Starting Bankroll (EOS) : 85.88529350

Bets Placed : 63.742

Total Wagered : ~104.85 EOS (~$265.28)

Loss : ~39.10 EOS (~$98.94) 

New Bankroll (EOS) : 46.77841566

 

I don't know if the above was a curse after making this thread or what, but damn .. the timing haha. Had the hit come prior to me making this thread, who knows, I might have never made it in the first place. But here we are, and we are going to keep on chugging. Making slight alterations going forward though.

I will be reverting back to my initial x10 payout and loss increase of 12% for the foreseeable future. Making sure I set a conservative 'Stop on Profit' margin alongside my 'Stop on Loss' (how did I forget this yesterday). I have been doing smaller sessions determined on profit already, I am just going to be paying more attention to it from here on out. 

May today be a small scratch back towards being in the profit once more - I believe! 

 

Thanks for reading, and I hope you all get big wins 🤑

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Posted (edited)

Thanks for your story, but i think you will lose everything when you increase if you lose with a long bet.

Edited by taongam | spelling mistake

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Episode # 002 - A Change in Currency !

Following The Big Oof I have sadly not had a lot of time to gamble, the weather is very nice here in Denmark these days, so that is being taken advantage of 🙂 Doing garden work and slowly starting to hang out with friends again after this whole covid-19 mess. And wine. A lot of wine. But here we are, I did some small sessions following the big loss and recouped a tiny bit (about $6.50) playing a bit more conservatively. But then I got to talking to a friend of mine and I might start playing with a bot (namely MyDiceBot - https://github.com/mydicebot/mydicebot.github.io ) but that requires me converting my EOS to something else, since EOS is not supported in any of the bots I have found for Stake. So that is what I have done, I went with XRP. Converted through the exchange on Stake and now I'm about to start "fresh" - the loss from EOS will be carried over, of course, still need to recoup that loss before we are in the profit again! 

I should probably link my spreadsheet for those interested, I seem to have forgotten about this for some reason 🙂 It can be found here;

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QFmbyZrG3t1aq4Cp8BOg7skI9dARszOt1JiR5YfOaqE/edit?usp=sharing

The spreadsheet will have all sessions recorded, and should provide a neat little overview of what I have been doing. It has all the sessions I've done with EOS listed and screenshots of the Live Stats feature from Stake to match. I'm looking into seeing how I can format my strategy for the different sessions, so that I can go back and look at what I did where and such, so that should be coming as well!

 

Going forward tonight there will be quite a bit of tinkering with the bot to get it up and running with my Stake account, so don't expect any crazy sessions going forward for the rest of the day. It opens up the possibility for more advanced strategies with how much we bet, winning chance etc. during the same session. Exciting 🤑

 

  • Status, June 22nd & June 23rd

Starting Bankroll (EOS) : 46.77841566

Bets Placed : 50.525

Total Wagered : ~17.07 EOS (~$43.21)

Profit : ~2.57 EOS (~$6.50) 

New Bankroll (EOS) : 49.34764826

Overall Profit/Loss: - $36,17

 

On 6/22/2020 at 5:02 PM, taongam said:

Thanks for your story, but i think you will lose everything when you increase if you lose with a long bet.

As with all gambling, the house always wins is a saying for a reason 🙂 Any form of Martingale is bound to leave you with a busted bankroll at some point, it just is what it is. I know this before going into this little adventure, I'm just here to bring something else to the forum and hopefully scratch up some profit in the process 🤑 If I bust, I bust.

9 hours ago, TheGreenTree said:

Hopefully luck turns for you... 

All the best!

Likewise bud! I'm sure it will though, with how the sun is shining and everything around these parts, how can it possibly go wrong? 😉

 

Thanks for reading, and I hope you all get big wins 🤑

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This is a great story..thanks for sharing! I enjoyed reading. But as said, i think, any form of Martingale is bound to leave u busted. But u are managing your risk..and its better

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Great story. Martingale is a bit risky, good to know that you are managing it well. All The Best.

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15 minutes ago, TheGreenTree said:

Why the switch between the bots?

Cross Platform Compatibility. 

They are built upon more or less the same backend so they function pretty much the same, the new one I linked has versions for Windows, Mac and Linux though in versions that are browser based, desktop app or pure CLI. The first one is only windows 🙂 I have a windows desktop that I mainly use and then a macbook for when I go somewhere, so being able to have a compatible bot with me where ever is nice. I still keep Suntjie's DiceBot around, since MyDiceBot does not have simulation mode - so if I want to test something out I head over to Suntjie's 🙂

On topic for the challenge, hopefully I can start running a script I feel comfortable with today as the next couple of days and over the weekend will be lackluster in terms of gambling. My nephew turns 3 this saturday, so me and my sister are taking her kids to my brothers till sunday, so I will probably be diving into even more wine the coming days 😅

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1 minute ago, TheGreenTree said:

The script's just basic martingale with very low probability to bust, right?

That is what I have been doing so far, yes. All my sessions so far has been done on the Stake site itself, so not really much room for doing anything else while auto-playing 🙂

I am currently looking into different strategies with variance in terms of bet sizing, win chance etc. based on previous events to hopefully try and mitigate some of the massive loss bonuses a standard Martingale can hit you with. Might be doing some Fibonacci or Labouchere to spice things up, but that requires me to wrap my head around scripting a bit more hah 😅

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Thanks for sharing this! Ive been looking for something like this for awhile but couldnt seem to find anything similar

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21 hours ago, itsmepuffd said:

As with all gambling, the house always wins is a saying for a reason 🙂 Any form of Martingale is bound to leave you with a busted bankroll at some point, it just is what it is. I know this before going into this little adventure, I'm just here to bring something else to the forum and hopefully scratch up some profit in the process 🤑 If I bust, I bust.

Good luck to you ! 💜

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Episode # 003 - We're Back !

 

What's up everyone, hope you all had a great week with lots and lots of big wins 🤑 

I personally have not been betting at all this past week as I've been visiting my brother over the weekend. My nephew turned 3 on saturday, so that called for celebration. They all live on the opposite side of the country, so that meant some traveling and staying at his place from thursday till sunday evening. I went with my sister and her 2 children, so I've been doing uncle things all weekend, and boy was I tired once we arrived back home - I basically slept for a solid 12-13 hours haha. But we're back at the grind now, and I'm excited! 

I have been doing simulations and tinkering with a couple different scripts yesterday, and for the foreseeable future I've settled on a progressive Fibonacci system with on the fly bet calculations determined by bankroll. I've done about 500.000 simulations so far, in various segments of 20.000 / 50.000 / 150.000 bets and haven't hit rock bottom yet ... yet ! I know 500.000 is not a lot, and I will be doing a larger segment later, might just throw another 500.000 bets at the simulator in a single segment, just to see how large of a loss streak I can manage. I've dabbled on the 28 mark so far in my testings without busting, but I kind of want it to just bust on me so that I have a gauge of what to go by. 

The script has a built in stop on profit calculation, which is basically just a profit of 1.5% on top of my bankroll at session start. So if I'm starting with a bankroll of 450 the script will stop at 456.75 and then reset seed (why not). With how bet sizing is set up at the current moment, profit target is reached at around 5,700 to 5,900 bets (can be done in roughly 30 minutes ish). I'm testing out different bankroll sizes to see how it might deal with longer losing streaks, but so far they all seem to follow each other pretty similarly.

You can follow along with the progress at; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QFmbyZrG3t1aq4Cp8BOg7skI9dARszOt1JiR5YfOaqE/edit?usp=sharing

The spreadsheet will have updates throughout the days as my sessions complete, so it is completely up to date if you want to take a peek before an update is posted 😉

Below is the stats for yesterday, I might space out updates a bit further between, rather than daily. What do you guys think? Maybe space them out every 3 days or something? I will of course be on the forums to discuss and talk in between updates 🙂 

 

  • Status, June 29th

Starting Bankroll (XRP) : 672.941

Bets Placed : 34,238

Total Wagered : ~141.706 XRP (~$26.76)

Profit : ~13.967 XRP (~$2.64) 

New Bankroll (XRP) : 686.908

Overall Profit/Loss: - $33.53

Slowly chipping away at the big hit we took in EOS. I sure do hope we can turn a profit!

Thanks for the good wishes everyone, and likewise to you all! 

 

Thanks for reading, and I hope you all get big wins 🤑

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10 minutes ago, itsmepuffd said:

The spreadsheet will have updates throughout the days as my sessions complete, so it is completely up to date if you want to take a peek before an update is posted 😉

Below is the stats for yesterday, I might space out updates a bit further between, rather than daily. What do you guys think? Maybe space them out every 3 days or something? I will of course be on the forums to discuss and talk in between updates 🙂 

I see you had a great weekend mate!

Yah every 3 days will do fine mate. Since you've made a spreadsheet for your sessions, your followers might just check it out every now and then.
Also, may I just request if you could possibly add the betting strategy you used in each session? Thanks.

Good luck mate!

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Yea it was a blast for sure ! Weather was absolutely amazing and plenty of wine/beer in the fridge at all times 😅 Helps with having to do uncle stuff for 4 small children hahaha

I have been running the same slightly altered Progressive Fibonacci script since yesterday and will be doing so until further notice. I'm a bit reluctant to share the script, since I kind of don't want anyone to rip their bankroll just because I've had a good run so far, if you know what I mean 🙂 Which is also why I'm doing small session chunks and trying to run through as many simulations as possible - just to see at what point it will fail. I'm close to 50% done with a 500.000 bet simulation currently, taking quite some time 😅

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13 hours ago, itsmepuffd said:

I have been running the same slightly altered Progressive Fibonacci script since yesterday and will be doing so until further notice. I'm a bit reluctant to share the script, since I kind of don't want anyone to rip their bankroll just because I've had a good run so far, if you know what I mean 🙂 Which is also why I'm doing small session chunks and trying to run through as many simulations as possible - just to see at what point it will fail. I'm close to 50% done with a 500.000 bet simulation currently, taking quite some time 😅

I understand mate. Well, I was just thinking if you share your strategy or how you came up with your script other members in the forum would have the chance to also pitch in some ideas. It's also up to them if they wanna try it out once you share it and if they do, they should try at their own risk lol

Nonetheless, I'm still looking forward to your next update mate.
Cheers & good luck! 😄

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I'm sorry guys. I've been feeling quite under the weather since my last update, so haven't really paid any attention to this topic.

I've also been doing things a bit different when I have been on the PC. I took note of a thing that could go viral on tiktok regarding Dogecoin, so I decided to funnel my funds over into that (bought into doge at $0.0023) and have been playing for Doge since. I thought about cashing out when it hit $0.008 but ultimately decided not to and to keep playing instead, since it was money I did not think I had in the first place anyway. 

I was about 10.500 doge in the hole when I made the switch to another strategy, which has done quite well over the past couple of days since the 7th or 8th. It recovered the loss and has made itself into a 33.734 doge profit as it stands right now. That is give or take roughly $123 profit with the doge rate right now. Which is all fine and dandy, but the strategy has proven losses in testing, so it's a matter of time. I'm working on incorporating a stoploss that makes sense and how long my sessions should be before i stop, vault the profits, then go again. 

Going to work out how I'm going to be doing this topic, since a lot has changed since the last post (change in currency, a lot of plays and such). 

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the problem i see with the strategy in auto bet i see else you dont have stop loss when every you auto bet 1st place stop loss ideally 1% of your bank roll if under 1k USD and  5 % if you have bigger bal believe me you can easily double your account every  2-3 days on avg i have done it so can you good luck awaiting for your update will like to make my own journey now by seeing yours 

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