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Limbo Seed: data Summary : Updated 47k bets


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Posted (edited)

Updated to 47,000 bets.

image.thumb.png.c6a63025db7bb59fd0849008ed8d8e1b.pngimage.thumb.png.ecf5b8f7c6024456b1c194d547a788de.png
This is data collected from my own bets on stake. It is one players experience documented and presented from that perspective. From a single example it is not plausible to generalise about every seed or every player's experience.  So it is up to each of you to decide if the story told in the charts resonates with your own experience. 

The average theoretical frequency for the occurrence of each payout targeted is calculated from the specific win chance shown on stake. By counting the actual occurrence we can see if the payouts targeted, have achieved the win chance frequency promised by stake.

A negative score in the chart indicates the number of occurrences below the promise, a positive score indicates the number of occurrences above the promise. All payouts should resolve to 0 over the "long run", matching the promised win chance frequency.

How long is the "long run"? some say 10million bets, some say 25million bets, hopefully it wont take that long.
 

Whey of the Nipple™
 
   

 

Edited by Ghostnipple
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These are interesting

image.thumb.png.022217f7b6f8f806cca5d0fde044d13f.png

10x has -77 occurrences below expected win chance 

 7x is -134  occurrences below advertised win chance. That's incredible -134! must be close to a record on that.

Can anyone do better?

 

 

2 hours ago, GreyArea said:

Why doesn’t this surprise me?

can always be surprised lol XD

 

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Posted (edited)

I always see a lot of 1.01-2.00x players so here is some small sample data for you. I will add a larger sample in a bit that shows positive outcome.


image.png

Here is the larger sample. 41794 bets.
image.thumb.png.5c0eb638f3c72d5bcfab8d7d51bcc835.png
 

Edited by ltcDaddy
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6 hours ago, ltcDaddy said:

I always see a lot of 1.01-2.00x players so here is some small sample data for you. I will add a larger sample in a bit that shows positive outcome.


image.png

Here is the larger sample. 41794 bets.
image.thumb.png.5c0eb638f3c72d5bcfab8d7d51bcc835.png
 

very nice

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Posted (edited)

Updated to 35,000 bets

image.thumb.png.952683dc568f69803dc26a22b2ce77b1.pngimage.thumb.png.b33fdb1993d6334d2709bc0cdd5fa274.png 

 

Jeez if it were my casino, Id be trying to bury the data, or at least make it difficult to access. Player's won't like it but I'd recommend a casino do the following:

> Delay supplying data for 24 hrs (gives players time to cool off)

> Make it difficult to access the data. Supply it in a complex format that makes it difficult to access, never give players bet data in an easy to access format!

> Avoid supplying bet data in csv format because that would be easy to open in excel.

> Change the data file format without telling players ( use .zip for example, it seems legit if you have to explain yourself)

> If you do have to give players bet data, make it inaccurate and incomplete so they can never have access to their full bet history.  

Never forget that players are mostly lazy and are idiots, so treat them that way if you want to make profit. hmmmm

I may have a future  as a casino management consultant.

Edited by Ghostnipple
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6 hours ago, Ghostnipple said:

Updated to 35,000 bets

image.thumb.png.952683dc568f69803dc26a22b2ce77b1.pngimage.thumb.png.b33fdb1993d6334d2709bc0cdd5fa274.png 

 

Jeez if it were my casino, Id be trying to bury the data, or at least make it difficult to access. Player's won't like it but I'd recommend a casino do the following:

> Delay supplying data for 24 hrs (gives players time to cool off)

> Make it difficult to access the data. Supply it in a complex format that makes it difficult to access, never give players bet data in an easy to access format!

> Avoid supplying bet data in csv format because that would be easy to open in excel.

> Change the data file format without telling players ( use .zip for example, it seems legit if you have to explain yourself)

> If you do have to give players bet data, make it inaccurate and incomplete so they can never have access to their full bet history.  

Never forget that players are mostly lazy and are idiots, so treat them that way if you want to make profit. hmmmm

I may have a future  as a casino management consultant.

To summarize: basically require the player to record the data themselves using a third party tool (bot) if they want accessibility and reliability of data. 

Ghostnipple’s Casino Consulting Services, DBA “Because House Edge Isn’t Enough, LLC” 

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6 hours ago, Ghostnipple said:

Updated to 35,000 bets

image.thumb.png.952683dc568f69803dc26a22b2ce77b1.pngimage.thumb.png.b33fdb1993d6334d2709bc0cdd5fa274.png 

 

Jeez if it were my casino, Id be trying to bury the data, or at least make it difficult to access. Player's won't like it but I'd recommend a casino do the following:

> Delay supplying data for 24 hrs (gives players time to cool off)

> Make it difficult to access the data. Supply it in a complex format that makes it difficult to access, never give players bet data in an easy to access format!

> Avoid supplying bet data in csv format because that would be easy to open in excel.

> Change the data file format without telling players ( use .zip for example, it seems legit if you have to explain yourself)

> If you do have to give players bet data, make it inaccurate and incomplete so they can never have access to their full bet history.  

Never forget that players are mostly lazy and are idiots, so treat them that way if you want to make profit. hmmmm

I may have a future  as a casino management consultant.

Wow good to know, thanks for the data ill share this where I can as well.

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1 hour ago, ltcDaddy said:

To summarize: basically require the player to record the data themselves using a third party tool (bot) if they want accessibility and reliability of data. 

Ghostnipple’s Casino Consulting Services, DBA “Because House Edge Isn’t Enough, LLC” 

I like it.. but Casino's aren't so much in the gambling business as in the Hope Business.

 

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wow I really feel for players who don't know how to contend with this, never mind about win chance they literally have no chance.

What's the average player likely to do when faced with such atrocious odds for 35,000 bets. Change seed I think.

Big mistake.

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3 hours ago, Ghostnipple said:

What's the average player likely to do when faced with such atrocious odds for 35,000 bets. Change seed I think.

Big mistake.

“What  goes around, comes around” as they say. 

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14 hours ago, Ghostnipple said:

Updated to 35,000 bets

image.thumb.png.952683dc568f69803dc26a22b2ce77b1.pngimage.thumb.png.b33fdb1993d6334d2709bc0cdd5fa274.png 

 

 

 

And the big question is where are the missing bets ???

If from 2X multiplier to 25000X there are substantially less hits than it should be (according to you), and never more than expected,  then there must be some place where all those bets are hitting. 

Like a veeery bigggg column upwards the "win chance= 0" horizontal line.

If your data is right, this section where there are much much more hits than the win chance suggest must be beyond 25000X multiplier, or under 2X.

If there is a section of multipliers that hits very very often, then there is a way to have profit.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, maverick528 said:

 

 

If from 2X multiplier to 25000X there are substantially less hits than it should be (according to you), and never more than expected,  then there must be some place where all those bets are hitting. 

Like a veeery bigggg column upwards the "win chance= 0" horizontal line.

If your data is right, this section where there are much much more hits than the win chance suggest must be beyond 25000X multiplier, or under 2X.

If there is a section of multipliers that hits very very often, then there is a way to have profit.

 

"And the big question is where are the missing bets ???"

That is an excellent question. I'm glad you raised it.


I've been asking support about the thousands of missing bets from my archive for the last year. No amount of requests results in those bets being produced. No matter how many times I've been told someone will get back to me. Nobody ever does. I receive no explanation as to why the bets are missing or no explanation as to why I am given no explanation.

Perhaps you can shed some light on this issue.

I look forward to your response.

 

 

Edited by Ghostnipple
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In your statistics, where are the missing bets?.

I think its easy to understand that, ignoring house edge for this example, if I draw a line at 2X and make 10000 rolls, in a perfect world I will have 5000 hits in greater-than-2X multipliers, and 5000 hits in lower-than-2X multipliers.

Because every roll that I make lands on a certain multiplier, and you can see it on the screen.

You say that there are much fewer hits in 2X to 25000X section, lets say as an example in my 10000 rolls test you say that between 2X and 25000X you got 3000 hits. So there are 7000 hits that landed somewhere else. Where are they? Higher than 25000X?. Or lower than 2X ?.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, maverick528 said:

In your statistics, where are the missing bets?.

I think its easy to understand that, ignoring house edge for this example, if I draw a line at 2X and make 10000 rolls, in a perfect world I will have 5000 hits in greater-than-2X multipliers, and 5000 hits in lower-than-2X multipliers.

Because every roll that I make lands on a certain multiplier, and you can see it on the screen.

You say that there are much fewer hits in 2X to 25000X section, lets say as an example in my 10000 rolls test you say that between 2X and 25000X you got 3000 hits. So there are 7000 hits that landed somewhere else. Where are they? Higher than 25000X?. Or lower than 2X ?.

 

 

Out of 37000 bets the highest payout target that has shown is 7500x. That was 21,000 bets ago.

Taking that to its logical conclusion what you are saying is that Stake delivers a low frequency of occurrence on any payout that I target (as illustrated above). And that stake only delivers high frequency of occurrence on payouts that I dont target.

That is very unsettling. 

 

Edited by Ghostnipple
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that's just 1 seed, maybe it simply have all the bad ones in front and it get averaged out later, it's only 35000 bets

 

If you do this with at least 30 seeds and they all come out similar then at least we can have a conversation. Till then.... 35000rolls means absolutely nothing.

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2 hours ago, maverick528 said:

In your statistics, where are the missing bets?.

I think its easy to understand that, ignoring house edge for this example, if I draw a line at 2X and make 10000 rolls, in a perfect world I will have 5000 hits in greater-than-2X multipliers, and 5000 hits in lower-than-2X multipliers.

Because every roll that I make lands on a certain multiplier, and you can see it on the screen.

You say that there are much fewer hits in 2X to 25000X section, lets say as an example in my 10000 rolls test you say that between 2X and 25000X you got 3000 hits. So there are 7000 hits that landed somewhere else. Where are they? Higher than 25000X?. Or lower than 2X ?.

 

 

Exaclly , I was thinking the same thing

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