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Limbo & the (not so rare) appearances of 1.0x !!


ByteMeTwice
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Can anyone work out the odds of getting 1.00 four times in a row on Limbo.

they gotta be outrageous. 😧😧😧

The nearest I can calculate is 998,700,329,969,001/1

Unbelievable is about the only non-offensive word I can think of..

Firefox_Screenshot_2021-09-27T20-49-55.042Z.png

I think this worth sending to guiness book of world records !!!

 

UPDATE>>>>>  UPDATE.  WE now know of another occurence of 1.0 four times in just 5 days after my original opening post :

https://ibb.co/fYjmz7f

Edited by ByteMeTwice
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You don't need a mathematician to tell you it's rigged. Dice is worse. Ever lose 15+ times in a row on 50% win chance settings while switching from over to under after each loss? LOL

That's like having two coins and both miraculously and simultaneously going on a 15+ losing streak at same time.

The odds are incomprehensible, yet with this fake provably-fair system, it happens quite often. Like within 15-5000 rolls. 

 

Yet I still play it. Which Stake counts on. Go figure 

 

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2 minutes ago, xMoonKnight said:

You don't need a mathematician to tell you it's rigged. Dice is worse. Ever lose 15+ times in a row on 50% win chance settings while switching from over to under after each loss? LOL

That's like having two coins and both miraculously and simultaneously going on a 15+ losing streak at same time.

The odds are incomprehensible, yet with this fake provably-fair system, it happens quite often. Like within 15-5000 rolls. 

 

Yet I still play it. Which Stake counts on. Go figure 

 

this would beat 15,000 losses in a row on 50% chance.

I could have a better chance of getting 4 holes-in-one on 4 par 5's ffs

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It's like 1 in 7 million (no prices calculation, roughly) not close to a billion. Since your bet is so low I assume you made lots and lots of that bet in autoplay. This would happen one day, otherwise you would keep winning forever. Can't call it rigged when it happens. 

And btw losing 4 in a row with min risk is more probable than losing 23 times in a row on 50% chance.

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8 minutes ago, narc said:

It's like 1 in 7 million (no prices calculation, roughly) not close to a billion. Since your bet is so low I assume you made lots and lots of that bet in autoplay. This would happen one day, otherwise you would keep winning forever. Can't call it rigged when it happens. 

And btw losing 4 in a row with min risk is more probable than losing 23 times in a row on 50% chance.

had approx 8k autobets.

Never once called it rigged

i'm never sore about losing. 

But I am in total shock about how I lost it

I calculate the odds on 9999 x 9999 x 9999 x 9999  maybe i'm counting wrong ?

Edited by ByteMeTwice
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14 minutes ago, ByteMeTwice said:

had approx 8k autobets.

Never once called it rigged

i'm never sore about losing. 

But I am in total shock about how I lost it

I calculate the odds on 9999 x 9999 x 9999 x 9999  maybe i'm counting wrong ?

Sorry for that mate it's extremely unlucky. It's more like one in 50 not 9999. win chance is 98% which means loss chance is 2% (little bit less than that since its about 98.02)

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1 hour ago, ByteMeTwice said:

Can anyone work out the odds of getting 1.00 four times in a row on Limbo.

they gotta be outrageous. 😧😧😧

The nearest I can calculate is 998,700,329,969,001/1

Unbelievable is about the only non-offensive word I can think of..

Firefox_Screenshot_2021-09-27T20-49-55.042Z.png

I think this worth sending to guiness book of world records !!!

 

All numbers between 0.00 and 0.99 are represented by 1 in limbo.  I'll figure out the odds later (it's something around 1 in 6 million), but you haven't broken any records.

 

1 hour ago, xMoonKnight said:

You don't need a mathematician to tell you it's rigged.

All you need is a basic understanding of encryption and how the provably fair system works to know it's not. 

Edited by dupeddonk
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The odds would be your chance of losing to the power of 4.

 

0.02^4 = 0.02*0.02*0.02*0.02 = 0.00000016 = 0.000016%

 

On the other hand.. Had you bet 1$ With these odds on dice in the other direction and went all in after each win.. 4 wins in a row would net over $92mil win…

Edited by MelonTusk
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22 minutes ago, MelonTusk said:

The odds would be your chance of losing to the power of 4.

 

0.02^4 = 0.02*0.02*0.02*0.02 = 0.00000016 = 0.000016%

 

On the other hand.. Had you bet 1$ With these odds on dice in the other direction and went all in after each win.. 4 wins in a row would net over $92mil win…

unfortunately it's always the other way 😧

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1 hour ago, dupeddonk said:

All you need is a basic understanding of encryption and how the provably fair system works to know it's not. 

Here you go again. You talk a lot but you never make any statements that show YOUR understanding of the material that you assume everyone else does not. Your opinions aren't based on mathematics, they're based on your belief in the integrity of a business aimed at making profit at all costs.

 

Watch this video and tell me how it's possible to lose 20+ consecutive times, literally every session of Dice at 50% win chance. 

 

 

The odds for losing 14 times in a row are once in every 32000 rolls...So do the math for 20 times...then test the theory yourself. Run autobet, 50k rolls. After you lose, come back and tell me how many rolls it took

EDIT: What's interesting is the fact that the reverse NEVER occurs. I've never seen a massive win streak like 15+. If provably-fair was legit, then at 50% win chance, both occurrences of massive wins and loss streaks would happen equally over time.

Edited by xMoonKnight
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9 minutes ago, xMoonKnight said:

Here you go again. You talk a lot but you never make any statements that show YOUR understanding of the material that you assume everyone else does not. Your opinions aren't based on mathematics, they're based on your belief in the integrity of a business aimed at making profit at all costs.

 

Watch this video and tell me how it's possible to lose 20+ consecutive times, literally every session of Dice at 50% win chance. 

 

 

The odds for losing 14 times in a row are once in every 32000 rolls...So do the math for 20 times...then test the theory yourself. Run autobet, 50k rolls. After you lose, come back and tell me how many rolls it took

EDIT: What's interesting is the fact that the reverse NEVER occurs. I've never seen a massive win streak like 15+. If provably-fair was legit, then at 50% win chance, both occurrences of massive wins and loss streaks would happen equally over time.

Your math is wrong. First, winning at 2.0 multiplier is not 50% chance. Because of the house edge, win chance is at 49.5%. Second, losing 14 times in a row at 50% is around 16,000 rolls. With house edge, that would be around 14000 rolls. 

Im not defending stake. I just think that the odds will always be on their side no matter what and there's no need for them to rig anything because all of us are rolling non stop 

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5 hours ago, xMoonKnight said:

Here you go again. You talk a lot but you never make any statements that show YOUR understanding of the material that you assume everyone else does not. Your opinions aren't based on mathematics, they're based on your belief in the integrity of a business aimed at making profit at all costs.

I literally built an app that takes any server seed/player seed pair and then  generates and analyzes over a million outcomes per minute.  Do you think that qualifies as demonstrating my understanding of how outcomes are determined or no?

The OP of this thread made a mistake and calculated the chances of rolling a 1.0 in limbo as if it had the same chances of happening in dice.  Limbo is different.  Starting with 0.00, each of the 100 million possible outcomes is less likely to be the result than the previous - and then all results from 0.00 - 0.99 are consolidated as 1.0 in this line of code:

image.png.2a0733998949b2c887b3d117ad1f55ce.png

 

 

5 hours ago, xMoonKnight said:

Watch this video and tell me how it's possible to lose 20+ consecutive times, literally every session of Dice at 50% win chance. 

I don't know how to tell you how something is possible other than to point out there's nothing making it impossible.  It's possible to lose an infinite number of bets in a row, just very unlikely.  It's also very unlikely that you have 20+ losing streaks 'literally every session of dice at stake'.  I'd be pretty surprised if you were able to post  just two bet IDs that were part of a 20+ losing streak, much less a bet id from 'literally every session' that has a 20+ losing streak at 50% dice.

Edited by dupeddonk
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3 hours ago, dupeddonk said:

I don't know how to tell you how something is possible other than to point out there's nothing making it impossible.  It's possible to lose an infinite number of bets in a row, just very unlikely.  It's also very unlikely that you have 20+ losing streaks 'literally every session of dice at stake'.  I'd be pretty surprised if you were able to post  just two bet IDs that were part of a 20+ losing streak, much less a bet id from 'literally every session' that has a 20+ losing streak at 50% dice.

I don't save bet ID's for wins or losses, but next time I play, I'll be sure to post the screen shot of when I lose. You say you'd be surprised? Imagine how I feel after it happens over and over and over. You never see wins of long streaks like that, only losses. Red 🚩 there. I also once lost 30+  times in a row at 33% win chance. I'm not saying impossible, I'm saying it's quite strange how fast it occurs, as I recall only having autobet running 2 hours. So it took roughly 20k rolls for that to happen.  But I digress. 

Edited by xMoonKnight
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28 minutes ago, xMoonKnight said:

I don't save bet ID's for wins or losses, but next time I play, I'll be sure to post the screen shot of when I lose. You say you'd be surprised? Imagine how I feel after it happens over and over and over. You never see wins of long streaks like that, only losses. Red 🚩 there. I also once lost 30+  times in a row at 33% win chance. I'm not saying impossible, I'm saying it's quite strange how fast it occurs, as I recall only having autobet running 2 hours. So it took roughly 20k rolls for that to happen.  But I digress. 

All you need to do is reveal your server seed (by changing your player seed), then look at any bet in from your bet history and post the player seed and server seed.  Just from those two pieces of info I can determine every number that's been rolled with that seed pair and how many 20+ losing streaks you could have had with a 50% win chance.

I've been through this before, someone makes a ridiculous claim as proof that stake is rigged and then when asked to prove it one of two things happens.  You will either come up with excuses to not post your player and server seed(s), or you will post them and they will show that what you're claiming happened didn't.

btw, the odds of losing 20 bets in a row at 50% win chance is 1 in 1,048,576.

Edited by dupeddonk
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13 hours ago, ByteMeTwice said:

было около 8к автобетов.

Никогда не называл это подстроенным

Я никогда не переживаю из-за проигрыша. 

Но я в полном шоке от того, как я его потерял.

Я рассчитываю шансы на 9999 x 9999 x 9999 x 9999, может я ошибаюсь?

1.00 happens every 50 bets. It is 50 x 50 x 50 x 50

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